Macroeconomic
Germany Economic Overview
Germany GDP Development over the Last 5 Years
The annual percentage growth rate of the gross domestic product, which is the measure of the economic output value of a country, is essential to deduct the economic trends. Currently, the German GDP trends and pattern indicate a slipped back economic growth because of the restriction imposed by the government to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic(Trading Economics, n.d.). Records indicate that the GDP growth rate for 2016 was 2.23% which is 0.74 % higher than the 1.5% from the previous year, 2015. For 2017, the GDP growth rate was 2.60%, a 0.37% increase from 2016. The GDP growth from 2018 was 1.27, a decline of 1.33% from 2017. The 2019 GDP growth rate was 0.56%, a 0.71% decline from 2018. The GDP growth worsened in 2020, with data indicating a GDP growth rate of -4.9%, a massive drop compared to the previous year. However, the 2021 GDP showed a growth of 3%(Aaron, 2021). The GDP growth rate from the 2018 to 2020 period indicates declined trends of economic development.
Composition and Changes of the Composition of the GDP over the Last 5 Years
GDP consists of the total household consumption, investments, government spending, and net export. Data indicates an increasing rate trend in the German government’s total expenditure percentage of the GDP from 2016 to 2020. The percentage changes in government expenditure have been increasing annually with an average rate of around 5%(Knoema, n.d.). The consumption percentage over the last five years shows a decreasing trend. The data of the consumption value in percent was 52.75, 52.27, 52.30, 52.39, and 49.59 in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, respectively(The Global Economy, n.d.). Data indicates changes in Germanys investment percentage of GDP each year. In the year 2020, Germany’s investment was the lowest with a percentage of 19.5%, which is a decrease of 2.9% from 2019. On average, Germany’s investment percentage from 2016 to April 2021 was around 21.5%, with a pattern of either a 1-1.5% increase or decrease(CEIC, n.d.). The German net export has been showing a decreasing trend with a slight increase in 2017. The net export data was 254 billion 258billion, 243 billion, and 224 billion in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 respectively. In 2020, the import and export declined by 7.1% and 9.3%respectively(Moodys Analytics, n.d.).
Trade Balance and the Change over Time
Trade balanced for Germany is the difference between the export and the imports goods as a percent of the GDP. Germany has been recording a trade surplus because of its strong export of machinery. Germany’s trade balance has a surplus of $19.O billion in April 2021. According to the latest reports in Feb 2021, Germany total exports was 133.1 billion USA dollars which is a decrease while import recorded around $155 billion an increase by 13.2%. Germany’s trade balance average between the years 2016-2020 was about 260,929 million dollars (Trading Economic, 2021). The recent years, 2017-2020, the trade balances reflect a decreasing trend.
Public Debt. Development over the Last 5 Years
Government debt is used by investors to measure the country’s ability to pay its debt. Germany’s government debt to the GDP in 2020 was around 69.80% which is a rise of 20 % from the 2019 records of around 59.70%.Statistics record of the government debt percentage in 2018,2017, 2016 was around 62.87, 55.7,and 69,6 respectively(Trading Economic, 2021b). Germany was walloped in 2020, placing it in an unstable position because its debt is beyond the maximum government debt, which is around 60% of GDP for stability and growth.
Financial Markets
Interest rate environment and its development over the last five years
The current Interest rate environment in Germany is yet to be adjusted by the central bank of Europe, but the process has been slowed down by Covid 19 pandemic. The factors that influence the interest rates are the safe asset demand, external imbalances, and the process of external adjustments, among others. The current average interest rates of 1.77% actuarial interest rate have been consequently lowered in the past. Germany’s interest rates have been stagnating for the last five years that is from 2016 to 2021, with a 0.00% rate. The previous money supply from the central bank recorded a total of 2724.0 Euro billion while the current money supply is 2736.80 Euro billion(Luigi Serenelli14, n.d.). The previous interbank rate of Germany is about -0.54, similar to the current interbank rate. The data shows that the interest rate environments have been lower in the past five years. That indicates that the borrowing power for the people is high. This has led to negative implications for the country, such as weak economic growth because of companies lacking a sustainable business model and borrowing cheap loans(C Fuest, 2020). The central bank of Europe has rendered an explanation causing the low-interest rates as the expansive monetary policy.
Describe the development of the reserve ratio over the last five years
The reserve ratio has been an effective monetary tool used to control rates in Germany. The minimum reserve ratio of Germany for the last five years has followed almost a flat scope because the ratio has been between 1.0% and 1.2 %. The current reserve ratio has been set as 1.0%. The foreign exchange of Germany was measured at 37.0USD in April 2021. Non-performing loan ratios mounted at 1.1% in December 2019 in comparison with the ratio of 1.2% in 2018. The household debt of Germany extended to2, 397.1US dollars in December 2020, accounting for 58.7% of the countrys minimal GDP. The German central bank has set a low percentage reserve ratio for the country to give more money for loans in order to boost the company for the past five years. Although the reserve ratio is not stagnant for the five years, they have slightly reduced or increased with one unit. That records an almost stagnant percentage reserve ratio for the country. The data, therefore, suggests that Germany has aimed at supplying more money to the economy for the sake of the country’s growth for the last five years. Development of the money multiplier over the last five years
The supply of money in Germany for the last five years can be determined by three areas; spending, direct tax, and benefits. According to the findings, in 2017, spending stood at 0.3%, direct tax to 0.35%, and benefits to 0.35%. In 2021 all of the economic tools recorded an increment to 0.1%. The results suggest that the country has been experiencing reduced tax borrowing. The continued increased forecast shows that the country is more likely to experience borrowing constrained. That has already affected the economic growth of the country, and it will continue to affect the economy based on the projections. Tax increment has also affected the country’s economy for the past five years with the fact that it leads to lower-income wages due to reduced employment opportunities and investment. The tax rule implies that an increase in taxes leads to higher taxes on incomes and hence slow output growth(Holland et al., 2013). Increased expenditure while the taxation increases consequently has also led to a reduced rate of economic development of Germany. According to projections, Germany is more likely to struggle with financial stability even in the coming years.
The Coronavirus and Microeconomic Model
The Covid-19 Pandemic and Its Effect on the Germany Economy
The first confirmed case of coronavirus was reported in Wuhan, China, in November 2019. The first coronavirus case in Germany was confirmed on 27th January 2020 in Bavaria. The German government initiated plans to control the spread of the infection. By mid-February, there was increasing in the confirmed new cases, and on 9th March, the first two confirmed death were reported. On 13th March, the German government declared the closure of schools and universities. The borders and air travel operations were also closed to prevent the entry of travelers. Curfew and lockdowns were also imposed to limit movements. People were asked to remain and work at home, and wearing masks became mandatory. On 30th March, the number of confirmed cases had exceeded 100,000.
The containment measures negatively affected economic development. In the first quarter of the year 2020, the GDP dropped by 5% compared to the same period in 2019. Private consumption was hit hard, with households spending 5.4% less on goods and services. The negative impact on manufacturing and business raised the unemployment level. The German foreign trade was significantly affected. Statistic reports show the declining rates of German imports and export(Trading Economic, 2021). The significant impact on the financial market affected price trends, and that consequently affected manufacturing, production, and selling prices(Trading Economics, 2021).
Complete compliance with the containment measures leads to a successful indication of covid-19 flattening. Germany is positively managing the crisis. In early 2021, the international trade started to pick up again raising the import by 3.8% and export by 1.8%. Compared to the data in April 2020, in April 2021, Germanys GDP shanked by 3.4%, showing an improvement. Vaccination accelerated in April, and as of June 2021, 47.5% of the German population had received their first dose. The total number of reported cases as of 15th June, the total confirmed covid-19 cases was 3,716,170, 89,937 deaths, and about 3,569000 recoveries. The quarterly reports in April 2021 indicated some improvement in the GDP.
Brief Description of the IS-LM Model and Its Relation to the Economic Event and Change
IS-LM model economically analyzes the goods market and financial market that work together to drive the economy. Assuming all other factors constant, the equilibrium point of the IS curve (investment and saving) investment =saving, and it indicates an equilibrium in the good market while that of the LM curve (liquidity and money) indicates the equilibrium in the financial market(Master Class, 2020)t. The IS curve slopes down to the right, indicating a fall in the interest rate. The falling interest rate increases the Gross domestic product because people invest more. The LM curve slopes up and to the right. The growth of the economy, lead to increased investment rate thus the financial institution encourages people to save more to get more fund for the investments. Therefore as interest rates fall, the economy expands, and as the economy expands, the interest rate rises. That creates an opposing relationship between the IS and the LM curves. Where the two curves meet is called the economic equilibrium point(Master Class, 2020). See fig 7iiii. An increase in interest rate based on the IS curve produces output stability, while the instability of the LM curves produces macro stability.
Covid-19 pandemic changed the economy, indicated by the s drop in the GDP.IS curve is determined by the output y and interest rate. Germany’s recent records in 2020 show a decline in the investment to GDP by 2.9% from the previous year 2019(CEIC, 2021). Germany 2020 exportation and importation declined by 9.3% and 7.1%, respectively, causing a net export to decrease compared to the previous year before the pandemic. The government expenditure increased by 0.2%. Net export decrease caused a decline in the good demands. Additionally, consumption as a percentage of the GDP (C) data from 2019-2020 showed declining trends.
The decline in investment I, consumption C, and increment of the government spending G variables at a constant interest rate affects the output Y making the IS curve to shift to the left (fig I below) and consequently the shift of the good market equilibrium point. Meanwhile, the decline of the nominal income due to pandemic effects on the consumption sector has caused the money supply and demand to drop(Martinez, 2021). Therefore a left shift of the money demand curves (Md) (see fig ii). At the same time, the shift in the money demand curve decreases the equilibrium interest rate (see fig iii)(Muchhtar, 2018). The economic shock shifts stimulate change in fiscal policy(G and T) and monetary policy (M); thus, the equilibrium in the good and financial market indicated in the IS-LM relationship curve in (fig iii) below changes.
Fig I showing the shift of IS curve to the left due to the decline of the output Y ( (C+I+G)
Fig ii showing the shift to the left of the money demand curve due to change in nominal income that declines in money supply and demand
Fig iii showing the downward shift or the decreasing interest rate due to change of money demand and supply
Fig iv showing the relationship between the IS curve and LM curve, producing an equilibrium interest rate and output.
Argument Mapping
The As-Ad Model and Its Relation to Economic Changes
The AD-AS model shows the economy at a given point in time, indicating both economic growth and inflation phenomena. The model analyzes the economic factors in short and long-run economic growth. The aggregate supply and aggregate demand of a country are determined by the level of output. Output is the quantity of goods and services produced by a country in a given period of time. Aggregate supply is the total amount of goods and services that firms are willing to sell at a given price, while aggregate demand is the total amount of goods and supply that consumers purchase at a price. In the AS-AD model, the aggregate supply and aggregate demand are graphed together to produce an equilibrium point where the demand and supply intercept. The output Y is the(x) axis, while price P is the (y) axis.
The pandemic produced an economic shock that caused a fluctuation of the supply and demand of goods and services, thus affecting price settings. The firm-level data in Germany indicate that majority of the firms were significantly affected by the covid-19 pandemic since April 2020, causing a lower productivity growth. The service industry is the most affected, followed by retail, then wholesales and manufacturing firms(Balleer et al., 2020). That created short-run cyclical unemployment. The government restriction on movement in March 2020 affected the travel companies, and the supply chains were the most affected(Jackson et al., n.d.). Data showed that the majority of the firms reported a reduction in order and that caused a negative demand shift. In addition, there was/is a fall labor supply as the number of confirmed cases increased and of the lockdown and quarantine measures of ill person was imposed by the government(Jan Van Harn, 2020). The price rise in input level, such as labor, causes the aggregate supply curve to shift back to the left, increasing the price from P0 to P1 and a new equilibrium E1 as indicated in fig vi. Similarly, the short-run shock decrease in output levels causes an inward shift in the aggregate supply curve, and as a result, there are increases prices. Consequently, Short-run instability in output causes an inward shift of the aggregate demand curves from AD1 to AD2, leading to higher price level and inflation (see fig v) as well as the shift in the aggregate supply from SRAS0 to SRAS1 as shown in fig vi.
Fig vi indicates aggregate supply shifts as a result of productivity growth and price increase in production inputs such as labor.
Fig v. indicates the shift of the aggregate demand causing an increase in price to P1.
Argument Mapping
Brief Forecast of the Development of the Economical Parameters Using the Discussed Models
The spring 2021 economic forecast reports that the German unemployment percentage rate as an indicator of economic growth will continue to increase in the coming years. However, the gross domestic product percentage growth is projected to increase by 3.4% at the end of 2021(Martinez, 2021). The covid-19 vaccine and reopening of the businesses hope to the recovery of the economy. The recovery of foreign trade, which is projected to increase in the coming years, will increase export growth by 10.4% and import growth by 11.4%(Trading Economics, 2021). Using the AD-AS model, reopening the businesses and production sector will increase the aggregate supply and demand. Additionally, at a constant interest rate, the output level Y (consumption+ total investment government spending) will increase, causing a shift to the right of the IS curve. The increase in the output level will increase the price level, money demand and supply, and nominal income. The increase in nominal income would cause a movement along the LM curve and, at the same time increasing the interest rate.
Fig vii showing how the projected increase in GDP percentage growth will lead to an increase in output y
Argument Mapping
References
Aaron, O. (2021, Winter). GermanyGross domestic product (GDP) growth rate 2026. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/375203/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-germany/
Balleer, A., Link, S., Menkhoff, M., & Zorn, P. (2020, July 27). Demand versus Supply: Price adjustment during the Covid-19 pandemic. VoxEU.Org. https://voxeu.org/article/demand-versus-supply-price-adjustment-during-covid-19-pandemic
C Fuest. (2020). Low-Interest Rates: Global Causes and Policy Implications for Germany. 5.
CEIC. (n.d.). Germany Investment: % of GDP, 1991 2021 | CEIC Data. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/germany/investment–nominal-gdp
CEIC. (2021). Germany Investment: % of GDP, 1991 2021 | CEIC Data. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/germany/investment–nominal-gdp
Holland, D., Barrell, R., & Hurst, I. (2013). Fiscal multipliers and prospects for consolidation. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2012(1), 71102. https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k8x6k5wc58x
Jackson, J. K., Weiss, M. A., Schwarzenberg, A. B., Nelson, R. M., Sutter, K. M., & Sutherland, M. D. (n.d.). Global Economic Effects of COVID-19. 157.
Jan Van Harn, E. (2020, 12th May). COVID-19 pushes Germany into recession. RaboResearch – Economic Research. https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/march/covid-19-pushes-germany-into-recession/
Knoema. (n.d.). Germany General government total expenditure, 1980-2020Knoema.com. Knoema. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://knoema.com//atlas/Germany/topics/Economy/Financial-Sector-General-Government-finance/General-government-total-expenditure
Luigi Serenelli14, L. S. (n.d.). Germany yet to decide on interest rate adjustment for 2021. IPE. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://www.ipe.com/news/germany-yet-to-decide-on-interest-rate-adjustment-for-2021/10045547.article
Martinez, M. (2021). Economic forecast for Germany [Text]. European Commission – European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-performance-country/germany/economic-forecast-germany_en
Master Class. (2020, 8th November). What Is the IS-LM Model in Economics2021? MasterClass. https://www.masterclass.com/articles/what-is-the-is-lm-model-in-economics
Moodys Analytics. (n.d.). Germany Net Exports | Moodys Analytics. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://www.economy.com/germany/net-exports
Mukhtar, H. (2018, 31st May). Monetary Policy. Hardiwinoto. https://hardiwinoto.com/monetary-policy/
The Global Economy. (n.d.). Germany Household consumption, percent of GDP – data, chart. TheGlobalEconomy.Com. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Germany/household_consumption/
Trading Economics. (2021a). Germany Balance of Trade | 1950-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical. https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade
Trading Economics. (2021b). Germany Government Debt to GDP | 1995-2020 Data | 2021-2023 Forecast | Historical. https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp
Trading Economics. (n.d.). Germany GDP Growth Rate 1971-2021. Retrieved 18th June 2021, from https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/gdp-growth-rate
Trding Economics. (2021). Germany Producer Prices | 1950-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical. https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/producer-prices
Appendix
| Year | GDP growth rate percentage | GDP trend |
| 2016 | 2.23 | 0.74 increase |
| 2017 | 2.60 | (2.60-2.23)=0.37 increase |
| 2018 | 1.27 | (2.60-1.27)-1.33decline |
| 2019 | 0.56 | (1.27-0.56)0.71decline |
| 2020 | -4.9 | (0.564.9)=5.6 decline |
Fig 1: Germany GDP growth rate percentage from 2016-2020
Fig 2: Graphical representation of the annual GDP growth rate percentage and the GDP changing trend
| year | Government total expenditure in billion LCU | Percentage change |
| 2020 | 1,703 | 9.27 |
| 2019 | 1558 | 4.42 |
| 2018 | 1492 | 3.57 |
| 2017 | 1441 | 3.62 |
| 2016 | 1390 | 4.09 |
Fig3: G Government expenditure from 2016-2020 and the percentage change
| Year | Net export in billion euros | Net export change in billion euros |
| 2020 | 171.89 | Decline by 49.11 |
| 2019 | 224 | Decline by 19 |
| 2018 | 243 | Decline by 15 |
| 2017 | 254 | Increase by 4 |
| 2016 | 266 | Decrease by 4 |
Fig 4: Germany Net export over the past five years
| Year | The trade balance is billion dollars | Percentage change |
| 2020 | 185.67 | 17.05% decline |
| 2019 | 223.82 | 8.17%decline |
| 2018 | 243.72 | 5.41%decline |
| 2017 | 257.66 | 0.73% increase |
| 2016 | 255.79 | 0.34%increase |
Fig5: Germany Trade Balance over the past five years
| Output y |
| Interest rate |
| Equilibrium point |
Fig8: IS-LM Model and Equilibrium point
Aggregate demand and aggregate supply
The monetary multiplier of Germany from 2017 to 2021
| 2017 | 2021 | |
| Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| Direct Tax | 0.35% | 0.10% |
| Benefits | 0.35% | 0.10% |
Interest rate development in Germany
The unit is in percentage.
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